Where the race stands
Numbers only. Each one shows its date and source, and anything older than 10 days greys out.
Race read: Toss-up leaning Fox (estimate from the State of the Race review). No 41B poll exists. As of Oct 26, 2026. Reasoning in the State of the Race doc
Field
Attempts this cycle
44,000
doors and phones since Jan 1
Conversations
10,000
23% of attempts
Door conversation rate
24%
9,300 of 38,500 door attempts
Attempts by week, conversations inside
1,300
300
Aug 31
doors 28%
2,000
420
Sep 7
doors 24%
2,400
540
Sep 14
doors 27%
3,200
850
Sep 21
doors 27%
1,500
450
Sep 28
3 days
doors 30%
2,500
700
to Oct 5
since Sep 30
doors 32%
2,500
600
to Oct 13
since Oct 5
doors 24%
3,000
700
to Oct 20
since Oct 13
doors 24%
3,000
700
to Oct 27
since Oct 20
doors 24%
3,000
800
to Nov 2
since Oct 27
doors 20%
Bars: all attempts, dark part: conversations, under each week: the door conversation rate. Every field figure on this page is a sample value, in place of the VoteBuilder counts the team entered. Later bars are the change in the cycle totals between entries on the Data page, so contacts entered late land in the week they were entered.
Early vote
Ballot applications
8,000
district
Ballots cast
7,000
88% of applications
Second vendor, returned
6,400
61% aged 65 and over
Applications and ballots over time
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
Applications 8,000Ballots 7,000Vendor 6,400Sep 18Oct 16Nov 3
Sample values. The dashed line stands in for a second vendor's returned count, used as a cross-check: its party split is not used here.
By place
Cottage Grove
2,900 cast
3,300 applications
Hastings and Niningerestimate
3,890 cast
4,450 applications
Denmark Townshipestimate
210 cast
250 applications
Support IDs
People with a current support ID
6,765
most recent response, early voters included
- Strong Jen3,60053%
- Lean Jen1,05016%
- Undecided1,60024%
- Lean GOP2704%
- Strong GOP2103%
- Not voting351%
Undecided by place
Signs
Households with a sign
560
of 563 household requests
Needs delivery
1
requests not yet in the ground; 2 more on hold
Cottage Grove share
27%
153 of 560 delivered, by mailing city. By precinct on Oct 26: 28.3%
Delivered signs per 1,000 target voters
Signs are the campaign's own delivered households inside the 41B precinct lines; the target-voter denominators are sample values.
Website and email
Sessions, 7 days
377
Visitors, 7 days
334
Sessions, 30 days
1,454
Visitors, 30 days
1,243
Sessions per day
0
100
200
Paid ads start
52 on Nov 1Aug 1Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1
Aug 1 to Nov 1: daily sessions from Wix, captured Oct 27. Later weeks appear as Web Snapshot rows are added.
Last five email sends
| Sent | Delivered | Opened | Open rate | Clicked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 Jen in the news: the voter guide and two interviews | 128 | 75 | 59% | 8 |
| Oct 28 Walk with Jen in the Monster Bash Parade | 128 | 62 | 48% | 1 |
| Oct 26 Come knock with us | 127 | 58 | 46% | 3 |
| Oct 20 Jen in the news | 128 | 81 | 63% | 8 |
| Oct 18 Tell one neighbor why | 128 | 76 | 59% | 2 |
Money
| Candidate committee | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fox DFL | $125,559 | $78,425 | $80,214 |
| Beck GOP | $81,683 | $73,162 | $15,157 |